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“Sprawl is a way of thinking that is centered on the core city, that imagines somehow that people, however far out their homes are, they’re going to commute to the core,” says Clark, of the George W. Bush Institute. “That’s increasingly unmoored from the reality of how people are living.” |
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A sprawling Texas suburb - Adobe Stock Images |
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When I first came across this New York Times article with "Sprawl” and “Texas" in the title I braced myself for the usual critique—an argument championing only urban density, anti-automobile, and homes stacked sky high. However, as I read the article, I realized that wasn't the main point at all. Instead, the article underscores a growing consensus: the United States is grappling with a major housing affordability crisis. Millions of Americans today—and likely in the near future—are unable to purchase homes. The idea of homeownership as a "forced savings plan" is real. The U.S. tax system incentivizes owning property: mortgage interest is deductible, and capital gains taxes only apply after profits exceed $500,000 for married couples. In a growing city, home values typically appreciate, when it comes time to sell, you can buy up or create a nice retirement nest egg. But what exactly is "sprawl"? At its core, sprawl refers to residential areas located outside of city centers, where commuting to denser hubs for work is required. Over the past decade, however, this dynamic has shifted, thanks to the rise of remote work and freelance opportunities. Think of a DoorDash driver, for instance. They don’t need to commute from Plano to downtown Dallas for work—they can find plenty of opportunities within a five-mile radius of their home. Similarly, IT professionals no longer need to be in the office every day. They don’t want to be there, and employers often don’t mind, as most issues can be resolved remotely. By the end of 2024, the data shows that over 50% of all jobs will be freelancers. When we talk about suburban growth, in areas 40 miles outside of downtown Austin, the term "sprawl" may no longer feel as accurate. Sprawl would assume every worker is commuting every day far from their home. While many cities have resisted sprawl for decades, states like Texas and Florida continue to see rapid expansion, and home values in these areas will keep rising. No doubt there will be infrastructure challenges that come with such growth—water systems, schools, and roads are required. Americans will move to where they can afford to buy a home. The job market will become more diverse and robust, and infrastructure follows. |