Analyzing 2024 U-Haul Moving Data

The 2024 U-Haul migration data was released this week to much excitement. We invest across the US, so analyzing this data is a small but essential data point that is part of our investment selection thesis. The data is calculated based on one-way trips to a state, figuring that someone is moving homes if they take a U-Haul out but not back. Not everyone uses U-Haul, I don't know what fraction of the market it is, but it's probably very small. Nonetheless, this is a real-world indication of people moving across the country.

We took the data analysis one step further. The question we wanted to answer is, what states were the winners and losers during and post-pandemic? We took the average rank for the number of moves for 2017 through 2019 and compared that to 2020-2024. States with positive numbers did better in their ranking. States with negative numbers moved further down the list, meaning they did worse. Looking at the rankings, there are some obvious winners and surprise-winners.

OBVIOUS WINNERS: Arizona, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada, and Montana were attractive because of low pandemic regulation and attractive work/life balance.

SURPRISE WINNERS: Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I'm at a loss as to why these states did so well.

More critical than positive changes in moving is which states have consistently had the most positive moves since 2017. There are no surprises here. The pro-growth, low-tax, affordable states win and win big. On the opposite end, the expensive, high-tax states were the losers.

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